Analysts predict India will face oil price volatility and macroeconomic effects due to the escalating Iran crisis, though the country's oil supply chain is not yet structurally insecure.
The Indian rupee crashed to a record closing low against the US dollar due to rising global crude oil prices, a strengthening dollar, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
S&P Global Ratings warns that Indian oil marketing companies like IOC, BPCL, and HPCL may face reduced profit margins due to rising crude oil prices and government pressure to maintain stable retail prices.
A sharp sell-off in the Indian equities markets after a spike in crude oil prices should not be surprising. Historically there is a negative correlation between stock valuations in India and the price of Brent crude oil, which is the benchmark for the Indian crude oil basket. Between 2011 and 2014, crude oil traded above $100 a barrel for an extended period, the Sensex-trailing price/earnings (P/E) was 18X, on average, during the period, nearly 22 per cent lower than the current index P/E of 23X.
From the Sensex pack, Sun Pharma, Eternal, Tata Motors, Bajaj Finance, IndusInd Bank and Bajaj Finserv were among the major laggards. In contrast, Tech Mahindra, Infosys, Asian Paints and Maruti were among the gainers.
Indian benchmark equity indices experienced a significant downturn, with the Sensex plummeting over 800 points and the Nifty falling sharply, driven by rising crude oil prices, geopolitical tensions, and foreign capital outflows.
The ministry of finance is likely to assume crude oil price to remain within $85 per barrel while estimating subsidies for the Interim Budget 2024-25 (FY25), to be presented on February 1. Brent crude prices moved up on Thursday, ending at $78.9 per barrel. Crude oil and cooking gas prices, which move in tandem, impact fertiliser and cooking gas subsidies, constituting 53 per cent of the government's total subsidies.
Indian stock market benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty experienced a significant decline, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East and rising crude oil prices.
From the 30-share blue-chip pack, Zomato cracked nearly 7 per cent. Power Grid, Adani Ports, Tata Steel, NTPC, Tata Motors, Tech Mahindra, Mahindra & Mahindra, Asian Paints, Sun Pharma and UltraTech Cement were the other major laggards. In contrast, Axis Bank, Hindustan Unilever, Tata Consultancy Services and IndusInd Bank were the gainers.
Despite international crude oil rates crossing USD 100 per barrel due to Middle East tensions, the Indian government plans to maintain current petrol and diesel prices, ensuring uninterrupted fuel supply across the country.
If international crude oil prices zoom past the current level of about $90 per barrel and move towards $100 and beyond, middle-class consumers are not going to keep quiet about their discomfort, points out Arun Balakrishnan, former chairman and managing director, Hindustan Petroleum.
If the conflict continues for a prolonged period, State-run oil companies may have to review retail fuel prices accordingly.
US crude oil futures edged down on Tuesday after hitting an 8-week high of $82 a barrel on Monday.
Low fuel prices to help oil marketing and refining sectors but upstream players will stay under pressure.
The latest decision of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, commonly known as Opec+, to boost output is being seen as an attempt to regain market share lost to the US, Brazil, and other oil producers, who have been increasing production recently.
Finance Minister P Chidambaram on Monday said the surge in international oil prices is a matter of grave concern and it was for the petroleum ministry to take a call on retail pricing of petroleum products.
"The prime minister is thinking of having a meeting of all political leaders and it could take place in the second week of next month," sources in the government said. While the agriculture scenario was comfortable spiralling crude oil prices in the international market was causing a concern, they said. Crude oil reached $96 a barrel mark early this month. However, it has come a notch lower now.
India's crude oil imports from Russia saw a marginal decline in September, but continued to account for over one-third of the country's total oil purchases, despite US pressure to curb the trade over concerns that it supports Moscow's war effort in Ukraine. India's crude imports in September were around 4.7 million barrels per day, up 220,000 bpd month-on-month and flat year-on-year.
This means lower losses on fuel sales by Indian oil companies and a shrinking oil subsidy bill for the government.
The real benefits can be seen when prices stabilise, preferably at levels acceptable to both consumers and producers.
Crude prices, which has become a big concern for the government fighting inflation, softened to about $104 to a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after touching $107 a barrel, its highest level since September 2008.
Brent crude oil prices may rise to $110 a barrel in 2023, up nearly 33 per cent from the current levels, said analysts at Morgan Stanley, in a recent note. This is, however, lower than the peak level of nearly $127 touched earlier in 2022 as geopolitical concerns took centre stage amidrising demand. "Looking ahead, Brent oil price growth will decelerate even more in the coming quarters. "This comes even as our global oil strategist expects a rise in oil prices back to $110 a barrel by the second half of 2023.
Crude oil's long price slide might be ending, feel some experts. Last Friday, the price of Brent crude, seen as a benchmark for what India uses, saw a low of $75.3 a barrel - it is now trading around $79. The fall has been nearly a third from its high seen in June, only five months earlier.
Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Friday warned that India's limited crude oil reserves of about 100 million barrels - sufficient for only 40-45 days of consumption - leave the country particularly vulnerable to supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing war in West Asia.
Indian stock market indices Sensex and Nifty experienced a significant decline, driven by rising crude oil prices, sustained foreign fund outflows, and selling pressure in major bank stocks.
Indian stock market benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty experienced a significant drop in early trade due to rising crude oil prices, bearish global market trends, and continuous foreign fund outflows.
India will maintain multiple sources for crude oil purchases and diversify them to ensure stability in the supply chain with national interests remaining the "guiding factor" for the procurement, Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri said.
Indian refiners are negotiating for additional crude cargoes from the US, Russia, and West Africa to ensure adequate supplies amid Middle East tensions. Refineries are maintaining normal processing rates and deferring maintenance to build reserves. The move comes as conflict impacts tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz, a key energy transit route.
Oil marketing companies (OMCs), paint manufacturers, tyre producers, and aviation stocks witnessed significant gains as Brent crude oil prices slipped below $70 per barrel. The price drop came after a double blow: The US imposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico, including energy imports, and OPEC+ - the group of major oil-producing nations including Russia - announced an output increase of 138,000 barrels per day, the first such hike since 2022.
Indian stock market benchmarks Sensex and Nifty rebounded strongly after a two-day decline, driven by falling crude oil prices and positive global cues amid hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East.
Donald Trump defends the recent surge in global oil prices, arguing it's a necessary short-term cost to eliminate Iran's nuclear threat and ensure global security.
Indian equity markets experienced a significant downturn, with the Sensex and Nifty plummeting due to rising crude oil prices, geopolitical tensions in West Asia, and continuous foreign fund outflows.
The country's fiscal deficit, as a percentage of GDP, would be wiped out if the crude oil price, as measured with the Indian basket, touch $80 per barrel.
The banking sector in the country is stable, capital is available and credit offtake is poised to take off, he said at a webinar organised by Bharat Chamber of Commerce. "We are not unique to the phenomenon of uncertain growth and high inflation due to the pandemic.
Brent crude prices surged sharply on Monday, rising by more than 25 per cent to $116.5 per barrel, amid the ongoing conflict in West Asia, which has made crude prices bullish.
The government on Tuesday increased the windfall profit tax on crude oil produced in the country and reduced the levy on exports of diesel. The tax, levied in the form of Special Additional Excise Duty or SAED, on domestically produced crude oil was increased to Rs 9,800 per tonne from Rs 9,050 a tonne, according to an official notification. SAED on the export of diesel was reduced to Rs 2 per litre from Rs 4 a litre and on jet fuel or ATF to nil from Rs 1, the notification said.
India possesses approximately 100 million barrels of commercial crude oil stocks, capable of covering 40-45 days of its requirements if flows through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, according to Kpler.
The ongoing oil price decline is mainly a result of oversupply in the global market
When asked about Bessent's announcement allowing certain Russian oil sales to India and whether the US is considering any other moves, including tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), Trump said, "If there were some, I would do it just to take a little of the pressure off."
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